http://www.geek.com/articles/chips/plummeting-dram-prices-mean-better-spec-pcs-in-2011-20101126/

 

http://www.dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch/Post/2/2541.html

 

Prices are softening and will continue downward trend into next year.

 

2H’Nov. DDR3 2GB contract price declined 12%, DDR3 1Gb is closed to US$1.2

 

According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce, 2H’Nov. DDR3 2GB “Average” contract price declined 12% to US$22 from US$25 while “Low” contract price dropped 12.5% to US$21. In 4Q10, DRAM vendors continued increasing output supply but PC demand is shrinking month by month. The over-supply has been accelerated and resulting in the deeper price cut from DRAM vendors at the purpose of inventory digestion. DRAM contract price has declined 30% QoQ in 4Q10 and we expect DDR3 1Gb contract price will decline around 40% in 4Q10.

 

Spot market is also under the low volume and declining price pattern. DDR3 1Gb eTT chip price dropped 5% to US$1.32 but DDR2 1Gb eTT average price sustain in the stable level given the limited supply. But still the DDR2 1Gb eTT price mildly decline to US$1.44. Due to the unsatisfactory yield rate from Taiwanese vendors, some low-yield rate or less than 1333Mhz DDR3 chip are raising in spot maket that the low-yield 1Gb eTT chip is closed to US$1.

 

We expect 1H11 DRAM market will be still over-supply. Facing the pressure on cost, those DRAM vendors who can’t lower the cost effectively will be struggling more. Samsung will strengthen leadership in terms of cost structure and market share given the raising CAPEX and 35nm migration. Samsung is expected to gain over 40% market share in DRAM and will still remain profit under dropping DRAM price.

 

DRAMeXchange expect DRAM price is likely to bottom up from the end of 2Q11 if DRAM content can be boosted up from dropping DRAM price. US$1-$1.2 can be reachable in 2H11. If not, DRAM vendors will accelerate the capacity cut for lower DRAM price.

 

 

 

 

Published Dec. 16 2010

1H’Dec. mainstream MLC NAND Flash contract price rebounded 3-11% triggered by the Toshiba’s power outage accident

 

Although inventory replenishment peak for year-end hot sales is over, some memory card and UFD makers are re-stocking in small volume given the dropping inventory level at early December, it resulted in the stabilizing NAND Flash price. At the expectation of shipment decline in January and February impact from the power outage in Toshiba’s NAND Flash planet in Yokkaichi on Dec. 8, end-customers are initiating earlier for the re-stocking and result in the 3-11% mainstream MLC contract price rebound in 1H’Dec. However, still some vendors implemented price promotion strategy in early December and result in price decline in some chips.

 

 

 

 

Keep watching for ram deals over the next 90 days.

 

Despite of the continuous migration and increased output, 2H’10 PC sales is still under expectation and PC content did not significantly increase in 4Q10 when DRAM price has declined 50% from the peak. Hence, DRAMeXchange expect DRAM market will be in the over-supply in 1H10. However, we also expect DRAM price will bottom up from April and OEM will sharply level up the inventory level for June PC shipment and result in the rebounded DRAM price. DRAMeXchange forecast that DDR3 1Gb will likely be back to the level at US$1.2-US$1.3 in 2H’11. DDR3 1Gb price will be below US$1 if demand is worse than expectation and will force the vendors with bad cost structure to cut the capacity. DDR3 1Gb will be back to US$1.2-US$1.3 after capacity cut. That is, DRAMeXchange expect DDR3 1Gb price will be below US$1 for three to six months.

 

 

Published Jan. 21 2011

DRAMeXchange: Contract price is reaching the bottom, 20%-25% price rebound is foreseeable by 2Q11

 

According to DRAMeXchange, a research department of Trendforce, 1H'Jan. contract price is reaching the bottom. DDR3 2GB "Average" contract price is $17(USD) while $16 for "Low" contract price. The decline is narrowed to 5%-6% from 10% in previous term. 2H'Jan. contract price is still under negotiation but we expect price will remain stable and mildly decline. With the launch of Sandy Bridge in early January, better acceptance of 64bit operation system and low memory price, new model content will be up to 4GB or above accordingly. PC-OEMs will initiate stocking inventory level at 1Q11 end and early 2Q11, which will likely to result in the rebounding 20%-25% DRAM price.

 

 

 

The market trend for DRAM (see below) prices is to rise in 2nd quarter.  If you were looking to purchase cheap ram this year then this is the time.  Newegg will probably still have a couple more good sales with 10% or 15% off.  Get it while the gettings good!

 

 

 

1H’Febuary contract price reached the bottom; DDR3 average contract price remained flat and the session low price went up by 3%

 

According to DRAMeXchange, a research department of TrendForce, 4Q10 DRAM contract price declined 50% and reached close to the bottom. After spotted a shrinking decline in January, February contract price seemed certain to rebound. DDR3 2GB average contract price remained flat while the session low contract price increased 3.23% from $15.5($0.81/1Gb) to $16($0.84/1Gb). As for DDR3 4GB, session low contract price also shown an upward trend, increased 3.33% from $30($1.72/2Gb) to $31($1.78/2Gb). DDR3 spot price surged 20% before Chinese New Year. The impact from Sandy Bridge flawed chipset was limited. Flawed chipset will be replaced and manufactures are back on track with the shipping schedule. Corrected New Chipset will be shipped recurrently from mid February forward. Factors mentioned above were expected to stimulate a price rebound. DDR3 session-low contract price indicated an upward momentum and will benefit the rebounding price.

 

In spot market, the need to replenish inventory on Chinese New Year’s Eve spurred speculative buying and resulted in a 24% price increase in the 1333Mhz 2Gb chip to $2.27. The spot price continued to climb to $2.32 then followed by a mild decline. A mild decline eased the hesitation in spot market and expected to stimulate sales. With the release of 1H’February contract price, the indication of a price rebound will help stabilize DDR3 spot price.

 

2011?Strong demand for mobile DRAM and cloud computing

 

According to DRAMeXchange, a research department of Trendforce, 2011 worldwide PC growth rate will be 10% while 3.9GB will be the new DRAM content per box. With an increasing DRAM capacity, a concern of over-supply still exists. DRAM vendors are actively adjusting output ratio from commodity DRAM to mobile DRAM.  Application in smartphone and tablet PC are expected to double mobile DRAM demand year-over-year and content per box will be at least 1GB. Cloud computing service provided by Google, Facebook and others have shown a rocketed growth. Server demand is expected to stimulate an increase in average server content per box from 20GB to 32GB and server-basis DRAM growth rate is about 50% to 60%. On the other hand, the wide acceptance of 3DTV and Blue-Ray DVD triggered a demand for specialty DRAM. Graphic memory is another potential market and the discrete graphic card spectrum has increased from 512MB to 1GB. Also, the next generation game console is under development, and memory development and qualification is an ongoing process.

 

The industry is gradually diversifying from manufacturing mainly commodity DRAM to now manufacturing diversified products such as mobile DRAM, server-basis DRAM, specialty DRAM and graphic memory. DRAM vendors are actively trying to break away from the existing industry cycle and sustain a steady profit over time.