I guess it will be a few more years before I upgrade based on current prices.  Not that I expect prices will go down but nothing is really compelling me to upgrade now and if I am going to pay current prices there needs to be a good reason.  Current hardware continues to serve me well.

 

My last upgrade I got what was "state-of the art" then for server-grade hardware and it cost about $1000 for MB, CPU and RAM.  Now I am looking at ~$1500-$1600.  Granted, there are hardware improvements, more cores in the CPU, etc. but there have been some hefty price increases.

 

DDR5 ECC RAM = $$$$$$

Edited January 5, 20233 yr by Hoopster

Check prices again in 4-6 months.  Coming out of the 4Q 2022, semiconductor and most tech businesses slammed on the breaks, anticipating there will be 2 quarters of low sales volume, at the minimum.  Prices on consumer grade components already are starting to drop, especially memory.  Enterprise/server grade stuff should follow.

 

There was such a big demand on all semiconductors with the pandemic - With everyone at home, people discovered their home network sucked.  Need a new PC, some tablets for the kids.  ISPs suddenly were seeing peak demand all hours of the day.  The big data guys, like AWS, couldn't put hardware in fast enough.  With components in short supply, every company was ordering and buying more than they needed to not be left short handed.

 

That's now over, and most everyone has more inventory than they can use.  Especially for things in the tech world which get old as fast as potato salad left out on the picnic table during summer.  There will be bargains.  You just need to wait a little bit.

9 minutes ago, ConnerVT said:

There will be bargains.  You just need to wait a little bit.

Waiting is not a problem.  As I said, no compelling need to upgrade right now.  I was just curious what a potential upgrade may look like and was surprised by current prices.  Hopefully, as you say, things will improve later this year.

On 1/6/2023 at 10:41 PM, ConnerVT said:

Prices on consumer grade components already are starting to drop, especially memory.  Enterprise/server grade stuff should follow.

Memory prices have been very cyclical in the past.

But I doubt we will see much of discounting for the rest.

More likely the prices will continue to increase across the board.

Memory (both DRAM and NAND) is a commodity market, much like soybeans or orange juice.  It is an early indicator of the greater semiconductor market, which in turn is driven by demand of the products these semi chips go into.  The semiconductor market as a whole is cyclical, with memory being the easiest to be impacted by supply and demand due to its high volume/low profit margin nature.

 

But now other parts of the semi industry are seeing orders being scaled back.  Many companies had placed large orders during 2022, reaching out through 2023-24.  They are now renegotiating them, as they now have too much inventory and see their customers scaling back orders.  Everyone in the industry, from semi manufacturers to distributors of finished electronic products are forecasting a bleak 2023.

 

While everyone in the industry would love to just raise prices to cover the lost revenue, it will not stimulate more sales.  As the value of today's technology falls as the next greatest tech is released, clearing out inventory, even at a loss, is much more preferred than just dumping it in a landfill.  There will be bargains, as distributors fight for scraps.

17 hours ago, ConnerVT said:

While everyone in the industry would love to just raise prices to cover the lost revenue, it will not stimulate more sales.

If they're unable to raise prices in the inflationary environment then the production rates will get cut to the levels that achieve a new equilibrium.

The companies are not going to continue to churn new product out if they can't meet their minimum profit margins.

And the margins are slim throughout the industry.

It's much more nuanced than that.

 

I get more of an inside look how the sausage is made where I work.  There are other ways to manage profit margins during inflationary times.  Just ask the several hundred folks who worked there before Christmas who don't now.

Time for a 6 month check in.  Prices continue to drop on most computer components, with memory (both RAM and solid state storage) leading the way down.

 

Just picked up a 2TB NVMe with DRAM cache for $70.  At the beginning of this year, it was selling for $110+.  This is just one data point of many, many 1000's of components that make up the market, but the majority share a similar trajectory.  Companies are still dealing with too much inventory, and the market won't be buying unless the World's economy improves.

16 hours ago, ConnerVT said:

Time for a 6 month check in.  Prices continue to drop on most computer components, with memory (both RAM and solid state storage) leading the way down.

As I've said earlier flash memory prices are highly cyclical.

But other than regular boom-bust events, overall it's always been in a steady downtrend pattern.

 

The rest of major components are not affected

In the last 6 months there was no extra discounting for motherboards and CPUs beside some minor price noise.

Same with computer cases and peripherals.

Edited June 25, 20233 yr by Lolight

Hey @Hoopster I followed your progress on the original server build and bought the same combo from imc. Did you ever end up replacing your build? I didn’t see another thread from you since this one. I’m still rocking the same build as you originally listed, 6 years later. The only thing that’s changed is different drives and more RAM.

At this point I don’t have a great reason to upgrade since everything is working well, but I am in the market for something in the mini itx form to fit into a new 10 inch rack I’m 3d printing. Those standard mATX board are just a smudge too big at 244x244. Your guidance back in 2020 as invaluable, hoping you have new suggestions!

7 minutes ago, ionred said:

Hey @Hoopster I followed your progress on the original server build and bought the same combo from imc. Did you ever end up replacing your build? I didn’t see another thread from you since this one. I’m still rocking the same build as you originally listed, 6 years later. The only thing that’s changed is different drives and more RAM.

At this point I don’t have a great reason to upgrade since everything is working well, but I am in the market for something in the mini itx form to fit into a new 10 inch rack I’m 3d printing. Those standard mATX board are just a smudge too big at 244x244. Your guidance back in 2020 as invaluable, hoping you have new suggestions!

I still have the same build as my main server. It still does everything I need and more. With the prices of RAM, SSDs and HDDs these days, I may be milking it a few more years. I did also build a backup server with a Mini-ITX variant of the MB, the E3C246D2I (details in my signature). That is getting long in the tooth now as well, but it is mainly just for storing disk-to-disk backups of my main server data and as a fallback should the main server have problems.

I started looking to upgrade around the time of the Intel 14th generation core processor release; however, the 13th/14th generation Intel processor problems put me off that idea. By the time I was considering it again last year, component prices started their upward climb and there is still no relief in sight.

Edited May 7May 7 by Hoopster

Wow. Looking back through this thread, it is shocking to see street retail prices today vs 3 years ago.

The 2TB Gen3 NVMe cache drive in my main server I bought for $70. The cheapest equivalent drive (similar brand/specs) now is 4 times that price.

Yep, we can all thank the AI bros.